Thursday, 14 February 2013

Exploring the Diffusion of Innovation Curve

In today's lesson we were looking at the definition of a trend and the development pattern trends follow called the diffusion of innovation curve. 

We discussed examples of the diffusion of innovation curve we've witnessed in society and fashion. 




Definition of a Trend Forecaster
Trend forecasters are lifestyle detectives: men and women who spend their time detecting patterns or shifts in attitudes, mindsets, or lifestyle options, that run against current thinking or how people normally behave, live, dress, communicate, and trade.


Definition of a Trend
A trend can be emotional, intellectual, and even spiritual.  A trend can be defined as a direction which something tends to move and which has consequential impact on the culture, society, or business sector through which it moves.

The words “style” or “movement” are sometimes used to describe the changes taking place over a period of time.   Style is a distinctive manner, aesthetic, method, or way of expressing something “new”, while a trend is the “direction” in which something new or different moves.  So a style is about difference, while a trend is about difference and the direction along which that difference travels.
                                                 

Martin Raymond – The Trend Forecasters Handbook






Diffusion of Innovation

The “Innovators are the individuals who are responsible for the development of an innovation or the introduction of a new idea.  The Innovators may not have created the original idea but they are the people who articulate it in a way that makes sense to other members of their tribe or group.

The” Early Adapters” are connected to the Innovators, either close friends or colleagues and are happy to be exposed to new ideas as they trust and respect the Innovators.  The early Adapters usually have a high degree of interconnections or involvement with other groups and are essential for spreading the trends.  Forecasters use the term “critical mass” to describe the point at which a trend becomes infectious few people can resist it.  This is also known as the “tipping point”, or the point at which a trend tips over from being a minority concern to a majority one that is highly visible and influential.

The “Early Majority” respects the Early Adapters and therefore take on the trends.  These are usually highly sociable people, usually active on-line.  Making up a large percentage of the public they are followers but will follow opinions of those they trust.  These people will stay with a trend for quite some time which will filter through to the “Late Majority”.

The” Late Majority” are conservative by nature and require high levels of reassurance and explanation about how a new idea will work and how they can benefit from it before they buy into it.  They are a large percentage of the population.  Quite often the trend would have been adopted by this crowd in a watered down format.  This crowd are easier to target and their tastes easier to define therefore many companies concentrate their efforts servicing this group because it is easier to imitate than it is to innovate

“Laggards” are the slowest to adopt new ideas.  They are usually conservative and traditionalists, and would need a lot of reassurance to try something new.  When a trend has been adopted by the Laggards trend forecasters refer to it as being “flat-lined”, the end of a trend being useful to a forecaster.



Diffusion of Innovations – Everett M. Rogers” 




In lesson






After this discussion I began to think of trends I have witnessed go through the same pattern.

I immediately thought of my Dad being an example of laggard and that he had recently been introduced to the fusion restaurant Sushi Samba in Heron Tower, London that opened on 1st August 2012. The diffusion of innovation curve for Sushi Samba would most likely have gone like this:






TREND : Fusion Restaurants

Innovator
Shimon Bokovza (founder, entrepreneur, creative pioneer in restaurant industry)

Early Adapters
Chefs (highly skilled, creative non traditional cooks)

Early Majority
Food bloggers / critics (in the know, refined taste palette)

Late Majority
Inner city workers (well paid, noticed the restaurant on their commute to work / through word of mouth)

Laggards
General public (have heard positive reviews, willing to try something new)

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