In today's lesson we were looking at the definition of a trend and the development pattern trends follow called the diffusion of innovation curve.
We discussed examples of the diffusion of innovation curve we've witnessed in society and fashion.
Definition of a Trend Forecaster
Trend forecasters are lifestyle
detectives: men and women who spend their time detecting patterns or shifts in
attitudes, mindsets, or lifestyle options, that run against current thinking or
how people normally behave, live, dress, communicate, and trade.
Definition of a Trend
A trend can be emotional,
intellectual, and even spiritual. A
trend can be defined as a direction which something tends to move and which has
consequential impact on the culture, society, or business sector through which
it moves.
The words “style” or “movement” are
sometimes used to describe the changes taking place over a period of time. Style is a distinctive manner, aesthetic,
method, or way of expressing something “new”, while a trend is the “direction”
in which something new or different moves.
So a style is about difference, while a trend is about difference and
the direction along which that difference travels.
Martin Raymond – The Trend Forecasters
Handbook
The “Innovators
are the individuals who are responsible for the development of an innovation or
the introduction of a new idea. The
Innovators may not have created the original idea but they are the people who
articulate it in a way that makes sense to other members of their tribe or
group.
The” Early
Adapters” are connected to the Innovators, either close friends or colleagues and
are happy to be exposed to new ideas as they trust and respect the Innovators. The early Adapters usually have a high degree
of interconnections or involvement with other groups and are essential for
spreading the trends. Forecasters use
the term “critical mass” to describe the point at which a trend becomes
infectious few people can resist it.
This is also known as the “tipping point”, or the point at which a trend
tips over from being a minority concern to a majority one that is highly
visible and influential.
The “Early
Majority” respects the Early Adapters and therefore take on the trends. These are usually highly sociable people,
usually active on-line. Making up a
large percentage of the public they are followers but will follow opinions of those
they trust. These people will stay with
a trend for quite some time which will filter through to the “Late Majority”.
The” Late
Majority” are conservative by nature and require high levels of reassurance and
explanation about how a new idea will work and how they can benefit from it
before they buy into it. They are a
large percentage of the population.
Quite often the trend would have been adopted by this crowd in a watered
down format. This crowd are easier to
target and their tastes easier to define therefore many companies concentrate
their efforts servicing this group because it is easier to imitate than it is
to innovate
“Laggards”
are the slowest to adopt new ideas. They
are usually conservative and traditionalists, and would need a lot of
reassurance to try something new. When a
trend has been adopted by the Laggards trend forecasters refer to it as being
“flat-lined”, the end of a trend being useful to a forecaster.
Diffusion of
Innovations – Everett M. Rogers”
In lesson
After this discussion I began to think of trends I have witnessed go through the same pattern.
I immediately thought of my Dad being an example of laggard and that he had recently been introduced to the fusion restaurant Sushi Samba in Heron Tower, London that opened on 1st August 2012. The diffusion of innovation curve for Sushi Samba would most likely have gone like this:
TREND : Fusion Restaurants
Innovator
Shimon Bokovza (founder, entrepreneur, creative pioneer in restaurant industry)
Early Adapters
Chefs (highly skilled, creative non traditional cooks)
Early Majority
Food bloggers / critics (in the know, refined taste palette)
Late Majority
Inner city workers (well paid, noticed the restaurant on their commute to work / through word of mouth)
Laggards
General public (have heard positive reviews, willing to try something new)
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